The domestic substitution of high-viscosity ethyl silicone oil is accelerating, and the market size is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan by 2030


1.The narrowing of import dependence has led to changes in the market pattern
The domestic market for high-viscosity ethyl silicone oil is undergoing structural changes, and the process of import substitution is continuously accelerating. Data shows that in 2024, the domestic market demand for high-viscosity ethyl silicone oil has reached 65,000 tons, while the market share of imported products remains as high as 65%. However, this proportion is declining year by year - compared with the import volume of 4,820 tons in 2020, the import volume in 2024 has shrunk to 2,950 tons, a decrease of nearly 40%. This change stems from the breakthroughs made by domestic enterprises in core technologies and capacity layout, breaking the long-term monopoly of international giants on the high-end market and promoting the transformation of the market from "passive import" to "independent supply". The East China and South China regions, leveraging their manufacturing cluster advantages, account for over 70% of the national consumption share and have become the core battlefields for domestic substitution.

2. Technological breakthroughs have been made to achieve performance on par with international standards
The rise of domestic high-viscosity ethyl silicone oil is attributed to the continuous breakthroughs in key technologies. In terms of polymerization process, the enterprise has achieved an ultra-wide viscosity coverage of 50,000-1,000,000 cSt by adopting the integrated technology of continuous polymerization and precise devolatilization, and the molecular weight distribution control (PDI≤1.8) has reached the international advanced level. Improving purity has become the focus of technological upgrades. Through ultra-clean impurity removal processes, the metal impurity content of the product can be reduced to below 10 ppb, fully meeting the demands of high-end scenarios such as semiconductor packaging. Meanwhile, in response to the high energy consumption of traditional processes, the application of closed-loop production technology has reduced energy consumption per unit of output value by more than 15%, which is in line with the green requirements of the "14th Five-Year Development Guide for the Petroleum and Chemical Industry".


3. The demand for high-end scene adaptation has seen a multi-point explosion
With performance upgrades, domestic high-viscosity ethyl silicone oil has achieved application breakthroughs in multiple high-end fields. In the field of new energy vehicles, its high-temperature resistance property can be adapted to the thermal management system of power batteries, and it can withstand cyclic temperature tests ranging from -40 ℃ to 150℃, with the shear strength attenuation rate controlled within 8%. In the packaging of photovoltaic N-type battery modules, the retention rate of Si-H bonds in the product is over 99.5%, and the volatile matter is less than 0.1%, perfectly meeting the long-life requirements of the modules. The electronic and electrical field has become the largest application sector, accounting for 38.6%. In advanced semiconductor packaging, the thermal expansion coefficient that matches that of silicon wafers can increase the yield rate by 15%. In addition, the application exploration in fields such as medical devices and aerospace is also accelerating.


4. The industrial outlook is optimistic and the scale continues to expand
Benefiting from the strong demand for downstream high-end manufacturing, the domestic high-viscosity ethyl silicone oil market is expected to maintain a high growth rate. It is estimated that the market size will reach 7.85 billion yuan in 2025 and climb to 11.62 billion yuan in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.2%. The demand will also increase from 72,000 tons in 2025 to 108,000 tons in 2030. At the policy level, the implementation of the revised "National Standard for Silicone Products" and the support of the National Key Research and Development Program have provided normative guarantees and technical impetus for the development of the industry. Industry insiders point out that with the improvement of the integrated layout of the industrial chain, the gross profit margin of domestic products has reached over 45%, and it is expected that the domestic production rate will exceed 50% by 2030, completely changing the supply pattern of the high-end market.