As the Spring Festival of 2025 approaches, the maritime market has once again become a focal point of attention. As a crucial part of global trade, the performance of maritime transport during the Spring Festival not only affects the domestic supply of goods but also impacts the global economy. This year's Spring Festival maritime market has shown some new characteristics and trends worth exploring.

I. Capacity Adjustment: Shipping Companies Respond to Demand Changes

During the Spring Festival, the demand for freight transportation typically declines significantly due to factory and business closures. To address this change, shipping companies have adjusted their capacities. According to data from Easy Ship, the weekly capacity in January 2025 has been reduced to 277,000 TEUs, lower than previously forecasted. Major shipping alliances such as OA, 2M, and MSC have all announced suspension plans, with six voyages suspended in the 5th week. Such capacity adjustments aim to optimize resource allocation and reduce unnecessary operational costs, reflecting the market's expectations for capacity demand. However, these adjustments are not without risks. Reduced capacity may lead to delays in cargo transportation and increased logistics costs for businesses. For shippers, it is essential to plan transportation arrangements in advance and choose appropriate transportation methods.

II. Market Demand: Pre-Festival Peak and Post-Festival Adjustment

Despite the overall decline in transportation demand during the Spring Festival, a peak in transportation demand still occurs before the festival. Merchants, in order to meet consumer needs during the holiday, typically increase the shipment of imported goods several weeks before the Spring Festival. This sudden surge in demand directly drives shipping companies' transportation arrangements and freight rate increases. For example, in 2024, before the Spring Festival, the freight rate for the Asia-Europe route reached $5,300 per FEU, close to the level before the Lunar New Year. However, as the Spring Festival holiday arrives, transportation demand drops sharply. Recent data from the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) shows that on January 10, the SCFI plummeted by 214.49 points to 2,290.68, a decrease of 8.56%. The European and Mediterranean routes saw declines of 14.42% and 7.21%, respectively, while the rates for the U.S. West Coast and East Coast routes also began to decline. To increase the utilization rate of cargo space, shipping companies had to adopt price reduction strategies.

III. Special Demand: Hainan Tourism and New Energy Vehicle Transportation

During the Spring Festival, Hainan, as a popular tourist destination, also shows unique changes in maritime demand. The Qiongzhou Strait is responsible for over 90% of the transportation of daily necessities and all vehicles entering and leaving Hainan Island. During the 2025 Spring Festival travel rush, it is estimated that there will be 4.9756 million passengers and 1.153 million vehicles crossing the strait. To meet this demand, Hainan Province has taken multiple measures to enhance capacity, including the addition of three roll-on/roll-off berths, the introduction of special routes for new energy vehicles, and prioritizing the transportation of fresh agricultural products out of the island. In addition, the transportation demand for new energy vehicles is also noteworthy. In 2024, before and after the Spring Festival, there was a shortage of tickets for new energy vehicles crossing the strait. The situation has improved this year. On the basis of the original new energy special routes, two flat barges have been introduced to transport new energy vehicles exclusively, with at least 20 special voyages for new energy vehicles scheduled daily.

IV. Market Outlook: Post-Festival Recovery and Long-Term Trends

Despite the many challenges faced by the maritime market during the Spring Festival, the expectation of market recovery after the festival remains strong. Overseas analysts believe that China's economy after the Lunar New Year will boost shipping prices. With the increase in restocking demand, orders for goods and transportation services are expected to rebound. Moreover, the ship charter market is also showing a supply shortage, with expectations that the charter market will remain bullish in the first half of 2025. Overall, the 2025 Spring Festival maritime market, influenced by capacity adjustments, demand fluctuations, and special demands, has shown complex and changing characteristics. Shipping companies and shippers need to closely monitor market dynamics and take early measures to ensure smooth cargo transportation. With the market recovery after the festival, the maritime industry is expected to usher in new opportunities for development.